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"No Bounce, No Play"

...Thank-you Stephen King for that timely play on words.


What happened to BHO's convention bounce?!! Good grief, it's non-existent!

The latest Zogby Nationwide Poll results are in. And it doesn't look good for the B Boys.


24 Comments:

  1. Anonymous said...
    This question may explain why I'm not a pollster, but why can't they convert this to electoral votes? Who cares if it is 47-45 either way if the electoral votes swing differently?
    Dan Trabue said...
    The latest Gallup polls have Obama with an 8% lead.

    For what it's worth.

    What do you reckon the polls will reflect for McCain/Palin next week?

    I rather suspect she'll energize the Religious Right somewhat, but turn off others, so I sorta expect a wash or even lose some ground.

    To be honest, with this newborn baby and a teen daughter who is pregnant, this poor family doesn't NEED to be in the White House. I am beginning to suspect that McCain is trying to throw this election.
    Eric said...
    "To be honest, with this newborn baby and a teen daughter who is pregnant, this poor family doesn't NEED to be in the White House."

    Echoing the sexism of BHO?
    Anonymous said...
    Dan, while the story to which you link is fairly recent, it cannot be accurately described as Gallup's "latest." It shows a three-day rolling average from Aug 26 to 28, before McCain announcing his running mate, and there have been three polls released since, all of them on or before your comment today. In the first poll, Obama maintained an 8-point lead that can almost certainly be attributed to the convention, and in the last two -- here and here -- that lead has shrunk to 6 points.

    We still have not seen a three-day rolling average that is entirely after the Palin announcement, to say nothing of the effects of the GOP convention, but the fact remains, that ain't the latest Gallup poll, and the more recent polls are easily found here.


    Dan, I'm not surprised that you think Palin will result in a net loss for McCain, even though it's worth noting that Gallup records that, "McCain's 2-point vice-presidential bounce [from 41 to 43%] is technically better than the complete lack of a vice presidential bounce [from 46 to 44%] seen for Obama with his selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden on Aug. 23."

    But I find nothing insightful in your theory that McCain is trying to throw this election. She's not a perfect VP choice, and it appeared that there wasn't a truly perfect choice available, but Palin not only energizes the Republican's conservative base but also conceivably reaches out to dissafected Democrats -- the largely white, blue-collar union workers who earlier supported Hillary. So, your theory strikes me as less of a reflection of the actual political landscape, and more spin and wishful thinking on your part.

    And about your bringing up her family, I do truly wonder if a politician's having a newborn baby would really be brought up if the politician was either A) a Democrat or B) male.

    Let's just say that the comment sounds sexist.
    Dan Trabue said...
    Sexist to think that "this poor family" might need to concentrate on themselves? Hardly.

    If MR. Palin were the one running, I would still think "this poor FAMILY" ought to concentrate on themselves.

    When Bill Clinton got into his trouble, besides being outraged at the creepy behavior towards an intern, I also said that he should step down from office. I thought so for several reasons, not the least of which was "This poor family" needs to work on healing themselves.

    No. Clearly not sexist. But I am glad you fellas are watching out for sexism. I hope that's true when it's a Republican making the allegedly sexist comment, too.
    Eric said...
    I didn't know you during the Clinton era. I'll take your word for it, and commend you.

    The "This Poor Family" construct could just as easily work against the Obama family. Truth is poor Barack and Michelle have plenty of personal issues to work through themselves. Perhaps they don't need to be in the White House either. Besides, if Barack was man enough to tell everyone that Bristol Palin is off limits, perhaps his sychophantic-media worshipers should take note, and get in line.

    And the idea that a woman four months removed from labor pains is somehow not ready to be Vice President is about as sexist as political rhetoric can get.
    Dan Trabue said...
    Perhaps. IF I had said that.

    I didn't say that.

    I said that a family with a new special needs child AND a teen daughter that is pregnant has enough on its hands. This is a compassion-based concern, not a sexist-based criticism.

    I know that with only two relatively normal children and me only having a typical job, things are busy enough. I can't begin to imagine trying to be the Vice President. I'm just saying that this seems like a poor time to be running for this office, for the family's sake.
    Marshal Art said...
    Well, Dan, that's what being a servant of the people is all about. Putting the needs of others before your own. But somehow, based on what we know so far, Palin is more than up to the task of handling personal and public issues simultaneously.
    Dan Trabue said...
    Being a servant of the people involves doing so at the cost of one's family?

    I'd be opposed to that. Again, it's one reason why I supported Bill Clinton stepping down back in the day and it's a reason why I support the Palins NOT running for this office.

    You are free to support it. I don't think I'd be alone in thinking this is too much for this family at this time.
    Anonymous said...
    Since Dan is now weighing in about what's best for families he's never met, and about whom he knows next to nothing, I think he should probably restrain himself from his usual snark about mind-reading the next time someone draws from his writing conclusions he doesn't like, since that's far, far less presumptuous then the smarmy (and transparently insincere) appeals to concern and compassion that he's trying to make now.
    Dan Trabue said...
    I'm not allowed to have an opinion about the potential First family?

    Was I wrong to think that Clinton should have stepped down, too, or are you maintaining a partisan-based sniping, Bubba?

    Do you have children, Bubba? Married? Do you have any idea how much work it is maintaining a family?

    I'm saying that I would not be surprised if there were many people like me who would look at this situation and think, "Man, this family does not need this."

    That is my opinion. No mind-reading necessary (unlike your blatantly mistaken assumption about my motives).

    I rebuke you once again for your goofy god complex. You ain't It, pal.
    Dan Trabue said...
    September 1, 2008
    CNN Poll of polls:
    Obama holds slim lead


    From CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib

    ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — Roughly nine weeks before Election Day, a new CNN poll of polls shows Barack Obama holding a five point lead over John McCain. Only four days after Obama’s acceptance speech and three days after McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Obama is now ahead of McCain, 49 to 44 percent.
    Anonymous said...
    Of course, you're "allowed" to have an opinion, Dan; freedom of thought and expression isn't the issue here, and you're indulging in faux-martyrdom if you think that it is.

    The issue is whether your opinion is the result of being well-informed. I highly doubt that it could conceivably be well-informed in this case, even accounting for your own experience raising children.
    Dan Trabue said...
    AAAANNND once again, no answers to the questions put forth to Bubba.

    Par for the course. Bubba can claim to know all about a person's motives and ask endless questions but need not answer them when they're inconvenient.

    Pah. Yer a troll.
    Anonymous said...
    Well, if we're going to engage in name-calling, Dan, you're a passive-aggressive hypocrite.

    You're also a liar, and a very poor liar at that, because my comment directly addressed one of your questions.

    You asked, "I'm not allowed to have an opinion about the potential First family?"

    I responded, "Of course, you're 'allowed' to have an opinion, Dan; freedom of thought and expression isn't the issue here, and you're indulging in faux-martyrdom if you think that it is."

    I admit that I didn't answer every single question you asked, in part because you often ask such loaded questions, so replete with false dilemmas and bad-faith assumptions that they compare to the classic loaded question, "have you stopped beating your wife?"

    (To wit, "Was I wrong to think that Clinton should have stepped down, too, or are you maintaining a partisan-based sniping, Bubba?")

    Some of your other questions enquire about things that are frankly none of your damn business. As with your earlier questions regarding how many "black churches" I've visited or how many minorities attend my church, I'm not willing to play games to prove that my personal life has enough experiences of a certain kind to satisfy your unknown (and probably unknowable) standards. Even when I can provide personal answers that would lend a certain amount of authenticity, I refuse, because deciding even to play this game is to lose.

    But to say that I provided "no answers" is thoroughly dishonest, because my comment directly answered your first idiotic question.

    And to say that providing no answers to your questions is "par for the course" is dishonest in the extreme, because I have probably answered more questions of yours than any of your other critics, and I have extended a tremendous amount of good faith in answering your questions, in the (now clearly vain) hope that you would pay that good faith in kind.

    Your slander of me has no basis in the truth.

    But I will make clear that I'm not saying this slander is typical of you, Dan. Compared to your vile invocation of the imagery of lynch mobs and Klan rallies, accusing me of not answering questions is somewhat mild. It's still quite reprehensible, but it's not the worst thing you've done recently.
    Dan Trabue said...
    Sorry, Eric, for taking us down this road.

    On topic: I'll take an Obama win over McCain by 5 points any day. A five point win would still be a pretty major drubbing.
    Anonymous said...
    I don't think Eric's the only person who deserves an apology, and it's not the most advanced lesson in Christian ethics that a person should apologize after engaging in slander.

    I don't demand an apology, in part because I frankly don't expect one is forthcoming. But, in the absence of an apology, I think this attempt to move on so glibly is pathetic.

    Take some responsibility for your words, Dan.
    Marshal Art said...
    "Being a servant of the people involves doing so at the cost of one's family?"

    That's what a servant of the people does, on a variety of levels, to various degrees depending upon the ability and tolerance for self-sacrifice of the subject and the subject's family. It's always at the cost of the servant's family that he serves at all. It is up to the servant to decide if he is up to serving in light of sacrifices of the family. This is nothing new whatsoever. This, if I have not said it before, is what a servant of the people does. It's why most don't choose to become one.
    Dan Trabue said...
    As I said, I'd be opposed to that sort of servanthood. It's a bad idea. Bad for the individual, bad for the community.
    Dan Trabue said...
    Barack Obama met the 50 percent threshold for the first time Tuesday in the Gallup daily tracking poll, a symbolic hurdle that until now had eluded the Democratic nominee.

    The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of the Democratic convention, Obama has risen 5 percentage points in the polls and now leads John McCain 50 percent to 42 percent...

    Rasmussen also recorded an uptick in Obama’s standing on Tuesday, and he now leads McCain 51 percent to 45 percent.


    source
    Anonymous said...
    I'm reminded of the priorities espoused in that obscure Sermon on the Mount, in Matthew 5:23-24.

    So when you are offering your gift at the altar, if you remember that your brother or sister has something against you, leave your gift there before the altar and go; first be reconciled to your brother or sister, and then come and offer your gift.

    Dan, unless you really think that Christ would not say the very same thing about regurgitating poll numbers as He did about one's duty to worship God Almighty, you are adding to your sin, in your refusal to take responsibility for your pathetic attempt to slander me.
    Erudite Redneck said...
    OK, OK. I'm watching Guiliani. Thanks for all the video clips.

    What. An Idiot.

    Good luck.
    Al-Ozarka said...
    Don't hold your breath, Bubba!
    Al-Ozarka said...
    "To be honest, with this newborn baby and a teen daughter who is pregnant, this poor family doesn't NEED to be in the White House." - Dan (I'm better than you by thiiiiisssss much) Trabue

    How much more sexist can you get?

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