Book of Oppositions | Pocket Full of Mumbles |


This world is one big game of "Go"-- Black against White, Light against Darkness --and we all have a choice to make: Do we war FOR the Light?

...or against it?

Landslide a'Comin' ...?...

Look what's happened to these Democrats. They show up for their convention.... You talk about juggernauts-- this was supposed to be a well-oiled machine that was going to bump Obama by 15 points coming out of there, but now he's down by two. He didn't get a bump out of Biden, didn't get a bump out of Michelle last night, didn't get a bump out of Teddy last night, so Pelosi has to go reassure Democrats this morning in Denver, "Hey, hey, don't worry about it, he's under-performing in the polls." No, Nancy, if anything his poll representation right now is overstated. Dare I say it, the Wilder Effect? Dare I say it, the Bradley Effect?

Psst-- listen to me. If he's not up ten, 15 points a week before the election, they're toast. If he's down two now, in electoral terms, based on history, he's down ten, at least five. Look what's happened. They have nominated somebody based on identity politics; not on resume, not on experience, not on qualification. They've nominated somebody for two reasons, because they couldn't stand the Clinton's anymore and they thought that this guy could sweep to victory over anybody without even having any competition to speak of.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Based on everything I've seen in Convention history the last 28 years I have to concur-- things do not look good for Barack right now. Not good at all.

Betsy Newmark offers some insight into the efficacy of the Convention "Bounce"

posted by Eric @ 11:00 AM,


On August 27, 2008 at 12:37 PM, Blogger Dan Trabue said...

Newsweek's latest poll has Obama out in front by 15%!

Landslide coming, possibly, but for whom?

On August 27, 2008 at 1:01 PM, Blogger Marshall Art said...

If I read it right, that poll is from June 20 and it's a poll of registered voters as opposed to "likely" voters. Important distinctions.

On August 27, 2008 at 1:09 PM, Anonymous Bubba said...

Um, Dan? Newsweek's "latest" poll?

Marshall's right, the story's dateline is June 20th. If that weren't enough of a clue that your article is the tiniest bit dated, the article mentions the "previous" poll, which was "completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination."

If that weren't enough, the article also explicitly mentions that the poll was taken on June 18 and 19, 2008.

Maybe I misunderstand you, Dan, just as I supposedly misunderstood your point about McCain considering a pro-life Veep. (If you have clarified your comment to explain on how I misunderstood you, I haven't seen it.)

But it seems an odd thing for you to pin so much weight on a poll (of registered voters, not likely voters) that was published SIXTY-SEVEN DAYS AGO to suggest that, despite the numerous polls and the numerous developments since, Obama might win in a landslide in an election that's still seventy days away.

It might well happen, but that two-month-old poll is not the most trustworthy bellweather that it will happen.

On August 27, 2008 at 1:11 PM, Anonymous Bubba said...

In other news, I hear the New England Patriots are about to go 19-0...

On August 27, 2008 at 1:18 PM, Anonymous Bubba said...

(So far as I can tell, this is an article covering a Newsweek poll that is probably accurately described as is "latest" poll. It matches the numbers shown here. At the very least, the poll, which shows Obama ahead 44-41, was published three weeks after Dan's poll. But even this poll is still a good six weeks stale.)

On August 27, 2008 at 1:26 PM, Blogger Dan Trabue said...


My bad...

On August 27, 2008 at 6:49 PM, Blogger Erudite Redneck said...

Rush Limbaugh is still a big not-so-fat idiot. Sorry.


I think that what nobody seems to be getting is the Obama peeps see this election as a street fight, not an effort to win "states." They ain't wastin' no time goin' noplace they can't win. Take Oklahoma. I'll be disappointed if Obama comes here. It's a goner for the GOP, yet again.

On August 27, 2008 at 9:33 PM, Blogger ELAshley said...

ER, they can call it whatever they want, but in the end it's still a 50-fronted battle. Whoever wins the best combination of those fronts gets the big chair.

I know what you think of Limbaugh. I didn't need your comment to affirm it, but in typical fashion you attack the messenger and leave the message unaddressed. You Lefties are really good at this.

At this stage in the race I couldn't care less about polls. I only offer my take on them to rub the Left's nose in its favorite bell-weather. They hoot and howl about 'Barack's leading here,' 'Barack's leading there.' But now.... they have to try and spin their own spin. Spin too much and things fall apart, the center cannot hold...

And I'm enjoying the spectacle immensely.

But put this bit of Yeats to music and you can almost hear the dead prophecy the Obama Campaign and the peril it seeks to foist upon America.

"Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the center cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

"Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"

Barack Obama will, thankfully, lose this election... for many reasons. Not the least of which his support of infanticide.

On August 28, 2008 at 10:05 PM, Blogger Erudite Redneck said...

Re, "Barack Obama will, thankfully, lose this election... for many reasons. Not the least of which his support of infanticide."

Wanna bet?

On August 29, 2008 at 1:20 AM, Blogger Marshall Art said...

"Wanna bet?"

I wouldn't. There's far too many fools who support this guy. In addition, there are far too many rightwing voters who think they'll be doing good by either not voting or by voting third party. They are foolish as well.

Vote less crappy. Vote McCain.


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